The baseball pitch is a repetitive, full-body throwing motion that exposes the elbow to significant loads, leading to a high incidence of elbow injuries. Elbow injuries in pitching are often attributed to high external valgus torques as these are generally considered to be a good proxy for the load on the Ulnar Collateral Ligament. The aim of the study is to contribute to elbow load monitoring by developing a prediction model based on the pelvis and trunk peak angular velocities and their separation time. Eleven male youth elite baseball pitchers (age 17 ± 2.2 years) threw 25 fastballs at full effort off a mound. Two-level varying-intercept, varying-slope Bayesian models were used to predict external valgus torque based on (inter)segmental rotation in fastball pitching with pitcher`s weight and height added to strengthen the individualisation of the prediction. The results revealed the high predictive performance of the models including a set of kinematic parameters trunk peak angular velocity and the separation time between the pelvis and trunk peak angular velocities. Such an approach allows individualised prediction of the external valgus torque for each pitcher, which has a great practical advantage compared to group-based predictions in terms of injury assessment and injury prevention.
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