Context: Return to play (RTP) has historically been determined using subjective reasoning; there is a need for more objective methods to assist in the determination of RTP timelines. RTP is typically reported using rates or proportions, but these measures can be inaccurate in instances where a lack of follow-up data excludes some athletes from analysis. Time to event analysis can provide more accurate estimates for time to RTP by accounting for all injured athletes regardless of lack of follow-up. Methods: Athletic trainers (ATs) participating in the National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance Program (NCAA-ISP) reported injury data for 32,462 men`s basketball athlete-exposures (AEs) and 31,440 women`s basketball AEs during the 2009/10-2017/18 academic years. Number of days lost from participation were calculated using the injury date and date of RTP. For athletes that did not return during the season, number of days lost from participation were calculated using a season end date of March 15; these injuries were identifi ed as censored cases. RTP probabilities for same day return, 1-6 days, 7-13 days, 14-29 days and more than 30 days were calculated using the Life-Table Method stratifi ed by new versus recurrent lateral ankle sprain (LAS). Results: From 2009/10-2017/18, ATs reported a total of 974 LAS. Most of those sprains were new injuries (n=768; 80%) rather than recurrence of an injury from the current or previous academic year (n=189; 20%). Of the 974 LAS, 362 (37%) were reported from Division I, 229 (24%) from Division II, and 383 (39%) from Division III. For new LAS, there was a signifi cant difference in RTP probabilities between divisions (p=.0001). For DI, the probability of same day return was 0.51; the probability of returning in the fi rst week was 0.57 and then decreased over time (Table 1). For DII, the probability of same day return was 0.33; the probability of returning in the first week was 0.52 and decreased over time. For DIII, the probability of same day return was 0.25 and increases to 0.56 for return in the fi rst week. There was no signifi cant difference in RTP probabilities between divisions for recurrent LAS (p=.5). Conclusions: For new lateral ankle sprains in collegiatebasketball, return to play timelines were signifi cantly different across divisions. Division I had higher RTP probabilities in the fi rst two weeks after injury than Divisions II and III. Anecdotal evidence used to estimate RTP timelines can be inaccurate and, coupled with pressurefrom coaches, athletes, and other external infl uences, athletes can be cleared to return too early. These RTP probabilities provide an evidence-based, objective addition to the body of evidence to help provide more accurate estimates of return times and more confi dence in returning an athlete to play.
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