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Expected goals model with pre-shot movement, Part 1: The model

There are few questions in hockey analytics more fundamental than who played well. Consequently, a large portion of hockey analysis has been focused on how to best measure results. This work is some of the most well-known work in "fancy stats"; when evaluating players and teams, many people who used to look at goals scored moved to focusing on Corsi and then expected goals (xG). The concept of an xG model is simple: look at the results of past shots to predict whether or not a particular shot will become a goal. Then credit the player who took the shot with that "expected" likelihood of scoring on that shot, regardless of whether or not it went in. Several such models have been developed, including by Emmanuel Perry, Evolving Wild, Moneypuck, and many others.
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Aiheet: mallintaminen analyysi ennuste jääkiekko urheilupeli
Aihealueet: urheilukilpailut
Toimittajat: Hockey Graphs
Julkaistu: 2019
Painos: 12. August 2019
Julkaisutyypit: elektroninen julkaisu
Kieli: englanti (kieli)
Taso: kehittynyt